Forecast Methods
The anthropological model utilizes the concepts of human culture and integrates the parts to parlay a holistic matrix of
interrelationships. Multiple techniques and methodologies exist to forecast the consumer driven economic and market
revenues, all of which are in one form or the other, culture driven. Some of the techniques and methodologies
employed by the Corporate Anthropology Center in conducting its consumer/market forecasts are described below.
The descriptions explain the rationale on which each technology is based, discuss the ways in which each technology
is most commonly used, and indicate whether results are typically quantitative or qualitative in nature. The techniques
are categorized by the five different ways people view the future:
Extrapolation techniques base prognosis on the concept that the future will represent a logical extension
of the past. Large scale, inexorable forces will drive the future in a continuous, reasonably predictable manner, and one
can, therefore, best forecast the future by identifying past trends and extrapolating them in a reasoned, logical manner.
Pattern Analysis is based upon the precept that the future will reflect a replication of past events.
Powerful feedback mechanisms in our society, together with basic human drives, will cause future trends and events to
occur in identifiable cycles and predictable patterns. Thus, one can best address the future by identifying and analyzing
analogous situations from the past and relating them to probable futures.
Goal Achievement stresses that the beliefs and actions of various individuals, organizations, and
institutions will determine the future. The future, therefore, is susceptible to modification and change by these entities.
Thus, the future can best be projected by examining the stated and implied goals of various decision-makers and trend
setters, by evaluating the extent to which each can affect future trends and events, and by evaluating what the
long-term results of their actions will be.
-Impact Analysis provides a simple, formal method for taking into account the fact that, in a complex society such as
ours, trends, events, and decisions often have consequences that are neither intended nor foreseen. The technique
combines the use of left brain and right brain thinking to project the secondary, tertiary, and higher order impacts and
implications of such occurrences. Results are qualitative in nature, and the technique is often used to analyze potential
consequences of projected technical advances or to determine areas in which forecasting efforts could best be
directed.
Wide Randomization seeks to form a gestalt from a series of events and actions that are essentially
unpredictable and, to a large extent, random. Therefore, one can best deal with the future by identifying a wide range of
possible trends and events, by carefully monitoring developments in the technical and social environments, and by
maintaining a high degree of flexibility in the planning process.
Intuition Methodology utilizes the theory that the future will be shaped by a complex mixture of
inexorable trends, random events, and the actions of key individuals and institutions. Because of this complexity, there
is no rational technique that can be used to forecast the future. Thus, the best method for projecting future trends and
events is to gather as much information as possible and, then, to depend on subconscious information processing in
the brain and personal intuition to provide useful insights.
For a more In depth Look at our Forecast Methods click Here